Brexit, 2015 to 2020
Thirteen statements by ministers, MPs and campaigners, from the £350 million bus to “no border down the Irish sea”, each set against the record. Every quote, and every line on what happened, links to its source.
Theme 1 of 4
“absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the single market.”
Video interview, the year before the referendum. Source: Full Fact
On 17 January 2017 the Prime Minister, Theresa May, said: “What I am proposing cannot mean membership of the single market.” The UK left the single market on 1 January 2021.
Sources: GOV.UK: Lancaster House speech · OBR
“The day after we vote to leave we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want.”
Keynote speech for Vote Leave, “The Facts of Life Say Leave”. Source: Vote Leave speech text (PDF)
On the first day of formal talks, 19 June 2017, the UK accepted the EU’s order of negotiation: trade would wait until there was progress on the financial settlement, citizens’ rights and the Irish border. A month earlier David Davis had predicted “the row of the summer” over that timetable.
Sources: The Guardian
“We send the EU £350 million a week. Let’s fund our NHS instead.”
Slogan on the side of the campaign bus. Source: The Guardian
On 27 May 2016 the chair of the UK Statistics Authority said that using the gross figure in contexts that imply it is a net figure “is misleading and undermines trust in official statistics”. He had put the UK’s net contribution from 2010 to 2014 at £7.1 billion a year, about £136 million a week.
Sources: The Guardian
“Once we have settled our accounts, we will take back control of roughly £350m per week.”
Article in the Daily Telegraph, as quoted by The Guardian. Source: The Guardian
On 17 September 2017 the chair of the UK Statistics Authority wrote to him that the figure “confuses gross and net contributions” and “is a clear misuse of official statistics”. Johnson replied that the letter was based on “a wilful distortion” of his article.
Sources: UK Statistics Authority letter (PDF) · The Guardian
Theme 2 of 4
“within two years, before the negotiation with the EU is likely to be complete, and therefore before anything material has changed, we can negotiate a free trade area massively larger than the EU.”
Article for ConservativeHome setting out a Brexit economic strategy. Source: ConservativeHome
“a comprehensive free trade agreement and a comprehensive customs agreement that will deliver the exact same benefits as we have”
House of Commons, answering a question during his statement on the Supreme Court’s Article 50 ruling. Source: Hansard
On 2 March 2018 Theresa May said: “In certain ways, our access to each other’s markets will be less than it is now.” The OBR judges that the trade agreement in force since 2021 raised non-tariff barriers, and expects UK exports and imports to be around 15 per cent lower in the long run than if the UK had stayed in the EU.
Sources: GOV.UK: Mansion House speech · OBR
“one of the easiest in human history”
On a free trade agreement with the EU, speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme. The BBC quotes only this phrase. Source: BBC News
The UK–EU trade agreement was struck on Christmas Eve 2020, after talks that ran to the last week before the transition period ended.
Sources: The Guardian
“We aim to have 80 per cent of UK trade covered by free trade agreements within the next three years, starting with the USA, Australia, New Zealand and Japan.”
The manifesto on which the party won the December 2019 election. Source: Conservative manifesto 2019 (PDF)
By the end of 2022 there was no UK–US trade agreement. On 20 September 2022 the Prime Minister, Liz Truss, said: “There aren’t currently any negotiations taking place with the US and I don’t have any expectation that those are going to start in the short to medium term.”
Sources: The Guardian
Theme 3 of 4
“Getting out of the EU can be quick and easy”
Headline of a post on his own website. Source: John Redwood’s Diary
Formal talks began in June 2017. The UK was due to leave on 29 March 2019; the date was put back more than once, and it left on 31 January 2020.
Sources: The Guardian: key events
“Our policy is having our cake and eating it.”
Interview with The Sun about leaving the EU while keeping open trade. Source: The Sun
“If we can achieve all that, there will be no downside to Brexit at all, and considerable upsides.”
House of Commons statement on the next steps in leaving the EU, after listing the government’s negotiating aims. Source: Hansard
The OBR assumes the UK–EU trade agreement will reduce long-run productivity by 4 per cent compared with remaining in the EU.
Sources: OBR
“I’d rather be dead in a ditch”
Asked, after a speech at a police training college in West Yorkshire, about asking the EU to extend Brexit beyond 31 October. Source: The Guardian
On 19 October 2019, as the Benn Act required, the government sent the EU an unsigned letter asking to extend Brexit to 31 January 2020. EU leaders agreed on 28 October, and the UK left on that date.
Sources: The Guardian: the letters · The Guardian: key events
Theme 4 of 4
“There will be no border down the Irish sea”
House of Commons, answering a question on customs checks during his statement on the future relationship with the EU. Source: Hansard
In July 2021 the minister responsible, Lord Frost, told the Lords that Northern Ireland was carrying out “20% of all the EU documentary checks on products of animal origin”. In February 2023 Rishi Sunak said the protocol had “treated goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland as if they were crossing an international customs border”.
Sources: Hansard, Lords, 21 July 2021 · Hansard, Commons, 27 February 2023
